Labor drawing support from both sides

In a poll run across Sydney & Melbourne by Nexus Research over the weekend of September 15-16th, 2007, 51% of current voting intentions were found to be for Labor compared to just 36% for the Liberals.

This starkly contrasts with figures of 37% for Labor and 48% for Liberals when a similar survey was conducted during the election run-up in September 2004. 

The latest survey went on to ask voters how they had voted at the last Federal election. Some 39% said they then voted Liberal, 34% Labor and 10% Greens.

Further analysis reveals that whilst 93% of previous Labor voters said they intended to do so again, the figures were only 76% for Liberal voters and 69% for Green voters.

Labor have now claimed 20% of previous Liberal voters and 26% of previous Green voters within Melbourne and Sydney, which together make up almost a third of Australia's total population and are often indicative of coming trends.

The demographic profile of people switching to Labor appears to echo the general population although with slightly more coming from Sydney, probably partly because of its bigger original base. (The sample size is too small to be definitive).

A further question checked whether voters thought they would be better off, about the same or worse off under a Government run by Kevin Rudd, John Howard or Peter Costello.

Whilst 22% thought they'd be better off under Mr Rudd, only 16% thought so under Mr Howard and 13% under Mr Costello. The figures for expecting to be worse off were 24%, 26% and 28% respectively. About half thought it would make no difference in any event and a small proportion were 'Don't Know's.

The data can be further interrogated by clicking on this link